Reading the ground: what the data is telling us about summer 2026
22nd June 2026
The most useful signal for a subsidence event year tends to appear long before it shows up in the claims numbers – in the ground.
Data indicates that we could be in for another hot, dry summer. While this is by no means guaranteed – for anyone managing subsidence exposure, the direction of travel is worth paying close attention to.
That is partly because of where we are starting from. Following the UK’s warmest summer on record in 2025, domestic subsidence payouts reached a record £307 million, a 10% increase on the previous year1. The ground entered 2026 still carrying the effects of that dry weather, and soil moisture data so far is tracking a picture similar to 2025. Clay soils have a long memory, and another dry summer landing on already-depleted ground behaves differently from one that follows a wet year.
A pattern that is becoming more familiar
Subsidence has always moved in surge years rather than a steady line, with notable peaks in 1976, 2003 and 2006. What has changed recently is the spacing. The UK has now seen three surge events in close succession, in 2018, 2022 and 2025. Each followed a hot, dry spell that drew moisture out of shrink-swell clay soils and caused the ground beneath foundations to contract.
The 2022 surge is a useful illustration of how quickly volumes can build. Of the 23,000 subsidence claims made that year, around 18,000 came in the second half, after the summer heat2. Claims tend to emerge late, often towards the end of July and into August, which means the window to prepare arrives earlier than the window to react.
Why soil moisture is the leading indicator
This is where environmental data earns its place. Soil moisture deficit, tracked through measures such as MORECS, shows how much water the ground has lost and how vulnerable clay-rich regions are becoming. It does not tell you which individual properties will move, but it gives a reliable, early read on whether the conditions for a surge are forming and where the pressure is likely to concentrate3.
In practice, that turns the summer outlook into something a claims team can act on. Resourcing, technical capacity and pathway planning can be shaped in advance, rather than scaled up once notifications are already climbing. The difference between the two approaches is the difference between managing a known pattern and absorbing a surprise.
Acting on the signal
This thinking sits at the front of how we approach subsidence. Reading property data, local claims history, vegetation, drainage evidence and WeatherNet environmental intelligence early helps establish the right direction for each claim from the outset, and gives our team of technical experts the information they need to make confident decisions sooner. The weather will do what it does, and no outlook is a certainty. But the signals in the ground are already there to be read. For insurers, the advantage in 2026 will lie with those who treat early data as the starting point for the claim journey, rather than waiting for the volumes to confirm what the soil has been indicating for months.
1. ABI, record subsidence payouts following the 2025 summer (record £307 million, up 10% year-on-year): https://www.reinsurancene.ws/adverse-weather-drives-uk-property-insurance-payouts-to-record-6-1bn-in-2025-abi/ ↩︎- 2. ABI, 2022 surge figures (23,000 claims, 18,000 in the second half of the year): https://www.abi.org.uk/news/news-articles/2023/3/sinking-uk–last-summers-record-breaking-heatwave-leads-to-surge-in-insurance-payouts-for-subsidence/ ↩︎
- 3. Milliman, UK property insurance and the 2025 subsidence event (soil moisture deficit as a leading indicator, claims emerging late summer): https://us.milliman.com/en/insight/uk-property-insurance-subsidence-event-2025 ↩︎
